Inggris Keluar Dari EU, Apa Dampaknya Bagi Perekonomian Indonesia?

Oleh: Ilham Afrizal Aristio

Ekonomi Pembangunan Unair 2014

    Usaha Inggris untuk keluar dari Uni Eropa atau yang biasa disebut BREXIT memang bukan isu yang baru. Lebih dari tiga dekade permasalahan ini selalu menjadi pembahasan baik dalam dunia politik maupun perekonomian di Inggris. Namun, pada hari jum’at, 24 juni 2016 kemarin, Inggris akhirnya benar benar memutuskan untuk keluar dari Uni Eropa. Tentu keputusan ini menjadi perhatian masyarakat dunia, karena dampak ekonomi yang dapat ditimbulkan akan mempengaruhi laju perekonomian dunia. Hal ini terkait dengan nilai perdagangan Inggris yang cukup signifikan di dalam pasar Eropa itu sendiri dan hilangnya skema pasar bebas dari perdangan Inggris dengan eropa. Indonesia sebagai salah satu negara yang tidak memiliki hubungan perdangangan yang besar terhadap inggris tentu tidak akan mendapat pengaruh langsung dari fenomena bersejarah ini. [iv]

    Keputusan Inggris tersebut terbukti memberikan dampak yang signifikan terhadap perekonomian global. Pada hari itu juga terlihat tiga sektor penting yang langsung merespon terhadap keputusan inggris untuk keluar dari EU. Dampak yang akan terasa secara langsung adalah di dalam pasar uang global. Kurs mata uang Inggris (Poundsterling) mengalami koreksi terbesar dalam 30 tahun terakhir menjadi $1,3230/pound. Mata uang jepang, Yen menagalami peningkatan terbesar yaitu 3,12% terhadap dollar. Tentu hal ini akan mempengaruhi harga barang di berbagai negara, terutama komoditas dengan jumlah ekspor/impor yang tinggi. Arus dana investasi internasional mendapat pengaruh yang cukup besar, dilihat dari Indeks saham internasional seperti NIKKEI 225 (Jepang -7,92%) , HANG SENG(China -4,27%), dan S&P (Australia -3,17%) pada hari jum’at terlihat mengalami koreksi yang cukup tajam. Ketika terjadi suatu fenomena yang menimbulkan ketidak pastian dalam pasar hal tersebut menjadi sesuatu yang normal. Dana investasi global akan berpindah ke instrumen safe heaven seperti Emas, surat obligasi Amerika, dan mata uang YEN. Pasar komoditas juga mendapat pukulan besar dari Brexit, beberapa komoditas seperti minyak Brent mengalami penurunan sebesar 5% ke angka $48,33/per barel. Komoditas lain yang mengalami penurunan adalah tembaga sebesar 3% dan nikel sebesar 4,66%. Disisi lain beberapa komoditas justru mengalami peningkatan dari Brexit ini seperti emas yang naik sebesar 5,6%. Emas memang selalu menjadi rencana cadangan bagi investor global ketika terjadi ketidak pastian dalam pasar. [i]

   Indonesia memang tidak mendapat dampak langsung dari fenomena tersebut, melainkan akan mendapat dampak secara tidak langsung dari perubahan perekonomian dunia. Terdapat beberapa poin penting yang harus diperhatikan atas dampak ekonomi dari fenomena ini seperti Pasar Saham, Kurs Rupiah, dan perdagangan dengan Eropa . Hari jum’at kemarin IHSG terkoreksi sebesar -2,28% dan mengingat beberapa komoditas kita masih memiliki stock yang berada di inggris, tentu hal ini akan sedikit banyak mempengaruhi pasar dana yang ada di indonesia. Selain itu Rupiah yang merupakan Soft Currency tidak berdaya dengan dampak dari BREXIT. Dollar Amerika yang seketika itu juga terapresiasi cukup tinggi terhadap poundsterling dan mata uang YEN yang menjadi pilihan investor global akan mengakibatkan Rupiah semakin ditinggalkan[iii]. Hal terakhir yang perlu diperhatikan adalah kerjasama perdagangan kita dengan negara-negara di eropa. Tentu dengan adanya guncangan yang nantinya akan terjadi di eropa akan memungkinkan terjadinya perubahan kondisi perjanjian yang sudah disepakati oleh Indonesia dan negara di ASIA lainya dengan negara-negara di eropa [ii]. Meski Pemerintah sendiri telah mengatakan bahwa tidak akan ada perubahan dalam perjanjian kerja sama perdagangan dengan negara-negara di eropa, namun hal ini masih perlu kita waspadai. -Mamon

[i] The Wall Street Journal (2016, 24 Juni) Fund Managers Tally the Cost of a ‘Brexit’

The U.K’s vote to leave the EU was a big hit for investors who had bet that ‘remain’ would prevail http://www. wsj.com/articles/fund-managers-tally-the-cost-of-a-brexit-1466762539

[ii]CNN Indonesia (2016, 26 Juni) Brexit Diyakini Tak Ganggu Perdagangan UE Dan ASEAN http://www.cnnindonesia.com/ekonomi/20160625233308-92-140910/brexit-diyakini-tak-ganggu-perdagangan-ue-dan-asean/

[iii] Kompas.com (2016, 25 Juni) Seberapa Besar Dampak “Brexit” Terhadap Ekonomi Indonesia? http://bisniskeuangan.kompas.com/read/2016/06/25/104648026/seberapa.besar.dampak.brexit.terhadap.ekonomi.indonesia.

[iv] New York Times (2016, 25 Juni) Turbulence and Uncertainty for the Market After ‘Brexit’ http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/25/business/international/brexit-financial-economic-impact-leave.html?_r=0

 

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The Core and Periphery of Love

Probably, there is no such complete, chronological, senseful explanation about love. It is like we have to sneeze with our eyes open, mental. So we assume that love is an extraordinary thing that (must) happen in everyone’s life. Before we touch the core and periphery thing, it is better for you to understand, this writing is not associated with any scientifical tests, experienced love experts, or people and their diabolical love story.

Pulling back to middle 20th century, when God did not even countdown our age. We may know from our parents, the city we live in and cities surrounding it mostly developed in the same condition, there was not a city more improved than the others. Like many developing country, there have to be strong factors to make a region looks more than the others. We can see these pattern in our relation with people. We do believe that every relation begin with acquaintance condition and same degree of friendship. The only difference is the reason lies behind this, what is the motive? Why he should make her friends? And typical question that may pop on your mind for yourself.

Nowadays, we can see clearly what things are not the same between our city and the others, some city good at this and some don’t. Maybe our city good at almost every subjects like infrastructure, crops, education, business climate, etc. and by that example we have know what is the meaning of core. Core, center, a space where most of the subject developed. In other words, core is where everyone heading to. How can this relate to our subject in love? When we feel like we had a good feeling about the relation that we build, we enjoy the act – counter-act along those relationship, then we are one step closer to the core. From now on, to make us easier to understand, lets simplified this love core things with term LC, for Love Core.

There are so many factors to either help us or give us a hardtime in order to reach our LC. Personality is the first thing we have to consider, what kind of person he or she is, what kind of personality we need, does she/he introvert or extrovert. Furthermore, we should deepen our understanding in each other personality. Besides personality, we can’t put aside the appearance. Everybody knows the good ‘ol term “don’t judge book by it’s cover”, but come on, don’t be hypocrite, we all knows that how good the looking is also written in our criteria. The next factors is time. How much time we spend and how good the quality of our time with him/her. Only ourselves could decide the value of time in this term wether on the quantity or the quality. We can relate those three main factors to the spacial core. Spacial core has so many luring factors that make it special, like the space is geographically suitable for the economy, the space is clustered and agglomerated for industries so there are many job opportunities, the systems is working well in that space, and many senseful reason behind it. So, we actually can relate this because the core in spacial subject gave us the points to the love subject in how we should build the relationship.

On the opposite, we have periphery. Let’s take ourself to the second paragraph. Remember the second sentence, “…more improved than the others”. Then the periphery is “the others”. Periphery is basically a space that poorer than the core, an area that left behind, a region that everyone inside it would struggle to leave it. Then if we relate to our main subject here, the core and periphery of love, it is more like the unwanted phase in relationship. Unwanted? Yes, nobody wants a bad relation with somebody. How do we know that we are in love periphery (LP) phase? When we feel that it is not going so well, when we can not feel the affection in it, when we dragged down by unsolved problems, when we could not think clearly about passing through obstacles in it, moreover, when you lose the trust and commitment you used to hold on to. Then what can we do? Fix it. In spacial periphery subject we have know that people in periphery region would trying to fix their region by leave it and heading to the core region, they will try their fortune in the core region then give what they got for their home region. In our subject we have options, either fix it by leave it or fix it by making it right. The first step to do is always to look at yourself, what is wrong. Then we can build it again step by step.

The core and periphery thing in regional economy is appliable to the other things, such as love. Basically, this writing were supposed to make us easier to understand either in regional economy or the world of affection, by giving little examples which quite easy to think about.-mums

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